Full Report
Satellite imagery is increasingly used by open source researchers to analyse conflict,natural disasters, mining activities and even construction work. With the help of Planet Labs PBC and Umbra Space, Bellingcat can take a snapshot of anywhere in the world by “tasking” their satellites to take an image at up to 25-centimetre resolution. Bellingcat asked you, […] The post From Mauritius to Sudan, You Told Us Where To Look. Here Are the Results appeared first on bellingcat.
Analysis Summary
# Main Topic
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) investigation leveraging high-resolution commercial satellite imagery from Planet Labs PBC and Umbra Space, tasked by Bellingcat based on community requests, to document significant geopolitical, conflict, and infrastructure developments globally, including in Mauritius, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Sudan.
## Key Points
- **High-Resolution Capabilities:** Imagery acquisition provided resolutions up to 25-centimeters, enabling detailed analysis of construction, infrastructure changes, and activity at sensitive sites.
- **Agaléga Airbase Development (Mauritius):** Satellite imagery tracking since 2019 shows extensive development of an Indian Air Force base, including a large runway, despite official denials from the Mauritian government regarding an established military base.
- **Nagorno-Karabakh Aftermath:** Recent imagery confirms widespread demolition and potential ransacking across Khankendi (Stepanakert). Furthermore, construction of new infrastructure, including a major highway linking Khankendi to Lachin via Shusha and a gas pipeline near Aghdere/Martakert, indicates forceful integration of the region by Azerbaijan.
- **Mining Activity:** The Demirli Copper-Molybdenum mine, noted for environmental and political controversy, was visible in the imagery over Nagorno-Karabakh.
- **Syrian Camp Analysis:** Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery of the Al Hawl camp showed changes in annex structures, indicating clearance of older sections and construction of a new annex since late 2023, despite the volatile security situation managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
## Threat Actors
- **Indian Armed Forces/Government:** Implicated in the undisclosed military base development on Agaléga, Mauritius, following a 2015 MoU.
- **Azerbaijani Forces/Government:** Responsible for major infrastructure construction and widespread building demolition/potential ransacking in the region internationally recognized as Nagorno-Karabakh.
- **ISIS Cells:** Noticed by intelligence analysts as actively operating, recruiting, and enforcing control within the Al Hawl refugee/detention camp in Syria, despite SDF control.
## TTPs
- **Infrastructure Expansion (Military):** Rapid construction of military airbase infrastructure (runways, associated buildings) in a geostrategically sensitive location (Agaléga).
- **Political Denial/Covert Development:** Development proceeds despite official statements from the host nation (Mauritius) downplaying the military nature of the construction.
- **Post-Conflict Territory Integration:** Large-scale construction of highways and utility pipelines following changes in regional control, aimed at solidifying national infrastructure links.
- **Demolition/Ransacking:** Active destruction of civilian and state infrastructure in recently controlled territories (Khankendi/Stepanakert).
- **Camp Governance/Control (ISIS):** Internal enforcement, recruitment, and brutal control exerted by ISIS cells within the Al Hawl camp structure.
## Affected Systems
- **Geopolitical Infrastructure:** Agaléga Island, Mauritius (site of developing airbase).
- **Urban/Civilian Infrastructure:** Khankendi/Stepanakert and Aghdere/Martakert (buildings demolished, new highways and pipelines constructed).
- **Refugee/Detention Facilities:** Al Hawl Camp, Northeast Syria (changes in physical annex structures observed).
- **Environmental/Resource Sites:** Demirli Copper-Molybdenum mine (visible in imagery).
- **Platforms/Tools Used in Analysis:** Planet Labs PBC (PlanetScope/SkySat imagery), Umbra Space (SAR imagery).
## Mitigations
*Note: As this report focuses on observational intelligence analysis rather than an active cyber threat, mitigations focus on situational awareness and counter-intelligence based on physical observation.*
- **Geopolitical Monitoring:** International stakeholders should align situational awareness regarding infrastructure development against official statements, leveraging high-resolution commercial monitoring for verification (as demonstrated by Bellingcat).
- **Humanitarian/Security Response:** Increased international scrutiny and intervention related to the deteriorating conditions and persistent ISIS activity within the Al Hawl camp.
- **Environmental Due Diligence:** Continued monitoring of high-impact mining operations (e.g., Demirli mine) using SAR/optical data to track environmental impact.
## Conclusion
The analysis demonstrates the critical role of commercial satellite imagery providers in providing actionable, granular intelligence regarding sensitive real-world events, circumventing state secrecy or lack of access for independent investigators. Key findings confirm significant strategic base construction in the Indian Ocean and evidence of aggressive infrastructure consolidation following conflict cessation in the South Caucasus. Further investigation into the humanitarian conditions and security risks within the monitored detention camps remains critical.