Full Report
Photo: Reuters The post Open Sources Show Myanmar Junta Airstrike Damages Despite Post-Earthquake Ceasefire appeared first on bellingcat.
Analysis Summary
# Incident Report: Myanmar Military Airstrikes During Post-Earthquake Ceasefire
## Executive Summary
Despite a temporary ceasefire declared following a major earthquake on March 28, the Myanmar military junta (SAC) conducted numerous airstrikes resulting in damage to at least 22 villages. The attacks, identified by Bellingcat through geolocation of satellite imagery, primarily targeted civilian areas in territories held by rebel forces, suggesting a strategy of terrorizing the civilian population supporting resistance groups, even during a declared humanitarian pause. The response involves ongoing documentation and international condemnation, while humanitarian aid access remains restricted.
## Incident Details
- **Discovery Date:** Ongoing investigation starting around early April 2025, with Bellingcat reporting findings subsequently.
- **Incident Date:** Starting March 28, 2025 (following the earthquake) and continuing through the declared ceasefire period (April 2–22, extended to April 30).
- **Affected Organization:** Civilian populations and infrastructure across multiple townships in Myanmar, particularly Sagaing and Mandalay regions.
- **Sector:** Geopolitical Conflict / Civilian Infrastructure.
- **Geography:** Myanmar (Focus on Sagaing, Mandalay, and Kayin regions).
## Timeline of Events
### Initial Access
- **Date/Time:** Around March 28, 2025, (just hours after the 7.7 magnitude earthquake).
- **Vector:** Military Airstrikes.
- **Details:** An aerial attack was reportedly carried out by the Myanmar military (SAC) on Nawng Len village in the eastern Shan State shortly after the earthquake.
### Lateral Movement
*Not applicable in the context of an organized kinetic attack by a state actor.* The pattern of strikes covered numerous villages across multiple regions.
### Data Exfiltration/Impact
- **Impact:** Destruction of civilian property, civilian casualties (e.g., 20 killed in Nan Khan on April 9; three family members killed in Thone Pan Hla on April 6), and the terrorization of local populations. At least 22 villages were damaged by military assaults during the first 20 days of the ceasefire.
### Detection & Response
- **Detection:** Bellingcat geolocated evidence of damaged villages by cross-referencing ground reporting with NASA FIRMS satellite imagery and local media sources, identifying assaults occurring even after the April 2 ceasefire commenced.
- **Response Actions:** The UN Human Rights Office issued a statement condemning the attacks, noting over 120 attacks since the earthquake, more than half after the ceasefire began. The junta extended the ceasefire but restricted humanitarian aid access.
## Attack Methodology
- **Initial Access:** Aerial bombardment (Airstrikes).
- **Persistence:** Not applicable to this state-sponsored kinetic action.
- **Privilege Escalation:** Not applicable.
- **Defense Evasion:** The attacks were state-sanctioned military actions, not traditional cyber evasion. The use of airpower against ground targets is the primary method.
- **Credential Access:** Not applicable.
- **Discovery:** Targeting areas where civilians live, which often correlates with supporting rebel forces, as rebels rely on civilian support for survival.
- **Lateral Movement:** Strikes spread across multiple regions (Sagaing, Mandalay, Kayin).
- **Collection:** Targeting civilian areas to "scare" and disrupt support for resistance groups.
- **Exfiltration:** Not applicable.
- **Impact:** Physical destruction of villages and civilian harm to enforce military control and suppress support for opposition forces.
## Impact Assessment
- **Financial:** Not specified, but significant destruction costs to civilian infrastructure in already suffering regions.
- **Data Breach:** Not applicable (Physical conflict report).
- **Operational:** Disruption of post-earthquake humanitarian relief efforts, as attacks persist while aid is needed most.
- **Reputational:** Significant reputational damage to the SAC due to violations of a self-declared ceasefire during a natural disaster relief period.
## Indicators of Compromise
- **Network indicators:** Not applicable (Kinetic event).
- **File indicators:** Not applicable.
- **Behavioral indicators:** Military commitment to offensive airstrikes against civilian-populated areas despite a declared ceasefire intended for humanitarian support.
## Response Actions
- **Containment measures:** Documentation and geolocation efforts by Bellingcat and other organizations to establish evidence of violations.
- **Eradication steps:** Not applicable.
- **Recovery actions:** Ongoing international calls for adherence to humanitarian pauses and unimpeded aid delivery.
## Lessons Learned
- The military junta demonstrates a willingness to violate declared ceasefires when strategic objectives (suppressing rebel support) conflict with humanitarian needs.
- Civilian populations are deliberately targeted under the guise of military strategy, often when resistance groups lack strong centralized air capabilities of their own.
- Humanitarian aid is being weaponized by restricting access to areas not under SAC control, even after disasters warranting assistance.
## Recommendations
- Increased verification and documentation of military actions during declared humanitarian pauses using satellite and open-source intelligence to ensure accountability.
- International bodies must pressure the SAC to ensure humanitarian aid reaches all earthquake-affected zones regardless of local control status.
- International monitoring groups should track resource denial tactics used in conflict zones, especially following natural disasters.