Full Report
China is rapidly modernizing and building up its military and paramilitary forces, providing Beijing with greater capacity to challenge and intimidate its neighbors. A new CSIS report leverages open-source data to analyze observable trends in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) activities in 2025 with a focus on key developments in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2025, China’s military…
Analysis Summary
# Main Topic
Analysis of observable trends in People's Liberation Army (PLA) activities in 2025 within the Indo-Pacific region, indicating China's capacity to challenge and intimidate neighbors through modernized military and paramilitary forces.
## Key Points
- China's military modernized and built up forces, increasing capacity to challenge neighbors.
- The analysis is based on open-source data leveraged in a CSIS report.
- PLA activity increased significantly around Taiwan (Taiwan Strait), the South China Sea, near Japan, and beyond the First Island Chain, showing a rise in operational tempo and geographic reach.
- The only surveyed area showing a decrease in operational tempo was China-Russia joint exercises.
- PLA activity sustained a higher baseline around Taiwan following the May 2024 inauguration of Taiwan’s President William Lai, with a marked increase in average monthly activities.
- China conducted two large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in 2025: "Strait Thunder-2025A" and "Justice Mission 2025."
- A minor year-over-year decrease in PLA activities was noted in the latter parts of 2025, suggested as a temporary, tactical adjustment.
- Taiwan's Coast Guard reported increased incidents with Chinese vessels in April 2025.
## Threat Actors
- **Primary Actor:** People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and associated Chinese paramilitary forces.
- **Attribution/Source:** Analysis derived from a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
## TTPs
- **Military Activity:** Increased tempo and geographic breadth of military operations.
- **Specific TTPs Observed:** Increased air and maritime activity around Taiwan.
- **Exercises:** Conducting large-scale military exercises ("Strait Thunder-2025A," "Justice Mission 2025").
- **Paramilitary Behavior:** Increased incidents involving Chinese vessels reported by Taiwan's Coast Guard.
## Affected Systems
- **Geographic/Operational Focus:** Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, areas near Japan, and regions beyond the First Island Chain.
- **Affected Entity:** Operational security and stability concerns for neighboring nations, highlighted by incidents reported by Taiwan's Coast Guard.
## Mitigations
*Specific mitigations were not provided in the source context; mitigation recommendations must be inferred based on the observed activity.*
- **Recommendation Inference:** Increased situational awareness and readiness across regional defense organizations, particularly focused on airspace and maritime domain monitoring in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
- **Recommendation Inference:** Preparation for potential escalation or coercion tactics exemplified by large-scale exercises.
## Conclusion
The report indicates a clear projection of increased Chinese military capability and willingness to use it to challenge regional norms in 2025, with Taiwan being the focal point of heightened operational tempo across air and maritime domains. Stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific should assume a sustained, elevated level of probing and coercive activity.