Full Report
China’s growing role in Latin America is framed as more than routine geopolitical competition, instead resembling a form of “unrestricted warfare” that uses economic, technological, legal, and informational tools to reshape the regional strategic environment below the level of armed conflict. The article argues that while Latin American states retain agency, the United States’ main…
Analysis Summary
# Threat Actor: People’s Republic of China (PRC) / State-Sponsored Elements
## Attribution & Identity
* **Name:** People’s Republic of China (PRC)
* **Associated Groups:** People’s Liberation Army (PLA), specifically thinkers associated with the PLA Air Force (PLAAF); state-sponsored cyber operations groups.
* **Framework:** The article identifies these activities under the doctrine of "Unrestricted Warfare" (UW)—a whole-of-state approach to asymmetric competition.
## Activity Summary
The actor is engaged in a long-term, multi-dimensional campaign to reshape the strategic environment of Latin America and the Caribbean. Key recent activities include:
* **Infrastructure Integration:** Deepening structural influence via the "2025 Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean."
* **Technological Expansion:** Deployment and integration of the BeiDou navigation system across the region.
* **Economic Displacement:** Aggressive trade maneuvers projected to make China the region’s primary trading partner by 2035, surpassing the U.S.
* **Strategic Shifting:** Leveraging "below-threshold" activities to constrain U.S. options and influence in the Western Hemisphere.
## Tactics, Techniques & Procedures
* **Unrestricted Warfare (UW):** Utilizing non-military tools to achieve strategic objectives.
* **Asymmetric Warfare:** Avoiding direct kinetic conflict while leveraging economic, legal, and technological tools.
* **Lawfare:** Leveraging international law and legal frameworks to justify or expand influence.
* **Economic Coercion:** Using trade dominance and infrastructure debt to influence regional policy.
* **Cyber Operations:** Targeted cyber espionage against critical sectors and defense industries.
* **Information Operations:** Shaping the regional informational environment to favor PRC narratives.
* **Technological Dependency:** Integrating proprietary standards (like BeiDou) into critical regional infrastructure.
## Targeting
* **Sectors:** Defense Industry, Telecommunications, Transportation (Navigation), Trade, and Government.
* **Geography:** Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC region); Western defense sectors globally.
* **Victims:** Latin American states (structural integration), Western defense industries (cyber spying), and U.S. strategic interests in the Western Hemisphere.
## Tools & Infrastructure
* **Satellite Systems:** BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (integrated into regional infrastructure).
* **Digital Tools:** "Jailbroken" AI and bot farms (mentioned as broader threats in the context of adversary capabilities).
* **Economic Tools:** Belt and Road-style infrastructure projects and trade agreements.
## Implications
* **Strategic Environment Reshaping:** The PRC is moving to a position where they can dictate the choices of regional players, effectively deterring U.S. influence "by choice" rather than force.
* **Pre-Conflict Positioning:** These activities allow China to shape the operational environment in the Western Hemisphere *before* any potential kinetic conflict occurs.
* **Structural Dependency:** By 2035, the economic and technological lock-in could make it difficult for Latin American nations to detach from PRC strategic interests.
## Mitigations
* **Alternative Investment:** The U.S. and allies must provide "credible alternatives" to PRC-backed infrastructure and trade deals.
* **Critical Infrastructure Resilience:** Hardening defense industry networks against state-sponsored cyber espionage.
* **Strengthened Partnerships:** Renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere as outlined in the U.S. National Security Strategy to counter the "below-threshold" strategy.
* **Monitoring Technologic Standards:** Vigilance regarding the integration of PRC-linked technologies (like navigation or 5G) into sovereign critical infrastructure.