Full Report
In 2025, US-based violent extremists are likely to favor targeted attacks over mass-casualty events. Explore threat forecasts, ideological trends, and countermeasures in this Insikt Group intelligence report.
Analysis Summary
# Threat Actor: Domestic Violent Extremists (DVEs) and Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) in the US
## Attribution & Identity
The analysis focuses on US-based domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and homegrown violent extremists (HVEs). Specific ideological subsets mentioned include:
* Neo-Nazi accelerationists
* Anti-government/anti-authority violent extremists (AGAAVEs) motivated by political animus
* Anarchist violent extremists (AVEs)
* Militia violent extremists (MVEs)
* HVEs with a nexus to foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis ('Axis of Resistance' groups).
* Islamic State (IS) supporters.
## Activity Summary
The primary predicted threat from these actors over the next twelve months involves **targeted attacks against personnel (including assassinations)** and **sabotage of facilities**. This preference for limited-scope methods is noted to be increasing in probability following recent high-profile assassination attempts in the US.
Specific predicted activities include:
* Issuing online threats.
* Stalking, harassing, and physically approaching victims.
* Conducting sabotage and surveillance.
* Disruptive demonstrations.
* Doxing and swatting.
* In cases involving FTO influence, US HVEs may attempt to provide material support (e.g., donations) to groups like the Houthis.
## Tactics, Techniques & Procedures
- Targeted attacks and assassinations (preferred over mass-casualty plots for DVEs like neo-Nazis, AGAAVEs, and AVEs).
- Sabotage of facilities.
- Issuing online threats.
- Doxing and swatting.
- Stalking and harassment.
- Surveillance.
- Accelerating adoption of new technologies:
- Commercially available Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
- Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)
- End-to-end encrypted communications platforms
- Cryptocurrencies
- 3D printing
## Targeting
- **Sectors:** Personnel and facilities associated with racial, ethnic, and religious minorities, the LGBTQIA+ community, US federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial government agencies (especially judicial and law enforcement agencies), specific private industry sectors (defense contractors, healthcare and pharmaceutical companies, financial and insurance agencies), and critical infrastructure providers. Business executives are specifically mentioned as targets for physical threats.
- **Geography:** United States (US).
- **Victims:** High-profile public figures, judges, public officials, and business executives. Specific ideological targets include minority communities.
## Tools & Infrastructure
- **Malware families used:** Not explicitly named, but implied use of new technologies like Generative AI and 3D printing for operational enhancement.
- **Infrastructure:** End-to-end encrypted communications platforms, cryptocurrencies.
## Implications
The threat landscape is shifting toward **elevated frequency, success rate, and operational impact** through targeted attacks against personnel, surpassing the imminent threat of mass-casualty attacks by certain DVE subsets. The influence of polarizing geopolitical issues (Middle East conflicts, US immigration policies) will continue to mobilize these groups. There is an increasing reliance on state and local governments and the private sector to manage counterterrorism programming due to shifting federal priorities.
## Mitigations
- **Executive Protection:** Increasingly crucial due to the preference for targeted attacks against high-profile personnel.
- **Proactive Threat Management:** Proactively identifying and removing publicly available information that can be used to target personnel.
- **Reactive Threat Detection:** Detecting online threats and negative sentiment campaigns aimed at executives.
- **Physical Security:** Facility security initiatives and hardening soft targets remain important.